Syria’s Struggle After Assad- A Detailed Analysis
The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria is arguably one of the most unexpected and welcome geopolitical developments of the 21st century. While the road ahead for Syria is uncertain, with millions of Syrians still facing difficult times as the country grapples with governance issues and the remnants of war, one thing is clear: Assad’s departure has given the Syrian people a chance for a future of dignity, stability, and opportunity that seemed impossible under his brutal rule.
To understand how this monumental shift happened, we must reflect on a pivotal moment in 2011 when I sat down with President Assad in his Damascus palace. We had just begun a promising backchannel peace mediation between Syria and Israel, discussing the return of the Golan Heights, which Syria lost to Israel in 1967.
At that time, there was a sense of optimism that Assad, a young and well-educated president, might usher in reforms that could modernize the authoritarian system he inherited from his father, Hafez al-Assad. But all that changed in mid-March 2011, when Assad ordered his security forces to suppress peaceful protests demanding democratic reforms violently. The killing of protesters and the mass detention of activists marked the beginning of Syria’s descent into civil war.
So, how did Assad’s regime finally implode?
The key catalyst appears to have been the military actions of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). This Islamist militant group seized the opportunity to expand its control over northwestern Syria in late 2024. HTS, led by Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, took advantage of recent setbacks suffered by Assad’s backers, Iran and Hezbollah, to advance effortlessly through northern Syria. Assad’s once-feared military forces, weakened by years of corruption, inefficiency, and infighting, quickly crumbled. The regime’s loyalists, plagued by criminality and dependence on amphetamines, proved incapable of mounting any meaningful resistance. HTS’s capture of Aleppo and other key cities opened the door for them to push deeper into the heart of Syria, towards Hama, Homs, and even Damascus.
At first, both Iran and Russia—Assad’s most staunch supporters—tried to shore up the crumbling regime. For Iran, Syria has been an essential part of its regional strategy, acting as a land bridge to Hezbollah in Lebanon. For Russia, supporting Assad was a matter of national prestige, symbolizing Russia’s return to great power status under Vladimir Putin. Yet, despite their desperate efforts, they were unable to prevent Assad’s eventual downfall. The reality of Syria’s situation was too dire to salvage. As the famous poet Percy Bysshe Shelley wrote, all they found was “boundless and bare”—a regime that had effectively disintegrated.
As Assad’s regime collapsed, HTS emerged as one of the leading players in the power vacuum. However, the situation remains fluid. While HTS claims to have distanced itself from al-Qaeda, it is still designated a terrorist group by both the U.S. and Turkey, which raises significant concerns about its potential to govern a post-Assad Syria. HTS’s ideology and track record, especially its human rights abuses in the areas it controls, make it a questionable force for rebuilding the country. But HTS also seems intent on reducing the influence of Iran and Hezbollah in Syria, which could align it, at least in part, with Western interests.
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Under President Joe Biden, the U.S. administration has expressed cautious relief at Assad’s departure. However, there is understandable ambivalence toward HTS, given its Islamist orientation and the potential risks it poses to Syria’s minority communities, including Alawites, Christians, and Kurds. The U.S. will need to balance its desire to prevent the rise of a fundamentalist government in Syria with its support for efforts to weaken Iran’s influence in the region.
For Syria’s future to be secure and inclusive, Turkey’s role will be crucial. Ankara, which has been a key backer of Syrian rebel forces, is wary of an HTS-led Syria due to the potential for sectarian violence, which could result in another wave of refugees heading toward Turkey. Turkey’s support for the current rebel offensive likely stems from Assad’s failure to guarantee the safe return of Syrian refugees to their home country.
HTS’s leader, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, has publicly stated his commitment to minority rights and rebuilding Syria after years of war. While this rhetoric is promising, HTS’s history of human rights abuses raises doubts about its sincerity. To avoid further division and violence, HTS, with the support of Turkey and the U.S., must take concrete steps to ensure the protection of all Syrians, including minorities, and commit to a political transition that is truly inclusive.
One potential path forward would be for HTS to work with other opposition factions to form a transitional government that includes representatives from all segments of Syrian society. This government would need to focus on restoring law and order, releasing political prisoners, ensuring the safe return of refugees, and laying the groundwork for free and fair elections. Moreover, HTS must reassure all Syrians that sectarianism will not define the post-Assad era and must work towards drafting a new, inclusive Syrian constitution.
As soon as conditions allow, the U.S. should act quickly to engage directly with their opposition leaders, including Jolani. It should reopen its embassy in Damascus and provide humanitarian aid and support for reconstruction efforts. Additionally, it is essential that international partners, including Turkey, the EU, and the UAE, work together to prevent Syria from descending into chaos and to assist in the rebuilding process.
While the road to recovery will be long and fraught with challenges, Assad’s departure presents Syrians with an unprecedented opportunity to rebuild their country. After years of suffering under a brutal regime and decades of regional manipulation, Syrians now have a chance to shape their future. The international community, led by the U.S. and its allies, must support this effort, ensuring that Syria’s next chapter is one of peace, stability, and hope for all its citizens.