Prashant Kishor Predicts BJP Victory: Analysis of 370 Seat Target in 2024 Lok Sabha Elections

Political consultant Prashant Kishor praised the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) for its strategic move of aiming for 370 seats in the ongoing Lok Sabha elections. In an interview with NDTV, he said he believes the current government will likely stay in power with similar or slightly better numbers.

To form a government in India, a party needs at least 272 seats in the Lok Sabha. Kishor explained that even if the BJP wins only 275 seats, they will still form the government. The key point is whether they get more than 272 seats. Despite fluctuations, he sees no risk of the NDA, led by Prime Minister Modi, not forming the government again.

Kishor highlighted that the conversation has shifted to whether the BJP can achieve 370 seats, thanks to their strategic planning. “For months, everyone has been talking about the BJP aiming for 370 or 400 seats. This change in focus means no one is saying Modi will lose; they’re just debating if the BJP will reach 370. Even if they get 320 seats, they’ll still form the government,” he said.

When asked about the election results on June 4, Kishor said, “We’ll see what happens. Everyone has opinions, but it seems clear the Modi-led BJP/NDA government will return with similar or slightly better results.”

Kishor stressed the importance of looking at the overall situation rather than daily election updates. “If people are really angry with the government, they might vote them out. But so far, we haven’t seen widespread anger against Modi. There might be some disappointment or unmet expectations, but not widespread anger.”

He also noted the lack of a strong challenger. “There’s no widespread belief that someone like Rahul Gandhi would improve things significantly. Without a strong challenger or widespread anger, I don’t see a big change in numbers.”

Kishor discussed regional dynamics, mentioning that North and West India, with about 325 seats, have been BJP/NDA strongholds since 2014. “In the East and South, where the BJP hasn’t done as well, they hold less than 50 out of 225 seats. For the BJP to lose, they would need significant losses in the North and West, which isn’t happening. In the East and South, they might even gain some seats.”

In conclusion, Kishor expects the BJP to maintain or slightly improve its position. “I see little chance of the BJP’s seat count decreasing,” he added.